Card 23 of 24 · Weak Induction
Fallacia electionis (cherry-picking)
Drawing the target around the bullseye after you shoot.
You notice the evidence that supports your view while ignoring the rest.
Example
“A skier says a certain wax is magical because of three great days, while ignoring twenty average ones.”
No classical name; a modern label for the clustering illusion. Closely related to suppressed evidence and confirmation bias.
Diagnosis: The pattern is defined after viewing the data and tested only against the hits. Without the full dataset — and a prediction made in advance — the cluster may be chance.
Date-setting prophecy charts that match current events while ignoring the many earlier “fulfillments” that failed.
Bible-code claims that find hidden words in long texts; similar “codes” can be found in Moby-Dick. Strong apologetics doesn’t need them.
Citing only answered prayers as evidence while ignoring unanswered ones. Theologians from Augustine to Kierkegaard warned against treating God as a vending machine.
Trail recovery
Ask to see the misses as well as the hits. In research, state your criteria before examining the evidence, and report counterevidence honestly — it makes your paper more credible.
Try saying: “What would the cases that didn’t fit look like, and how many are there?”
Keep questioning. Keep exploring.