Card 2 of 24 · Weak Induction
Non causa pro causa
Seeing two tracks in the snow and assuming one made the other.
Just because two things happen together doesn’t mean one caused the other.
Example
“It started snowing after I waxed my skis. Looks like my wax job brought the storm in.”
“Non-cause for cause.” Its sub-species include post hoc ergo propter hoc (“after this, therefore because of this”) and cum hoc ergo propter hoc (“with this, therefore because of this”).
Diagnosis: Temporal sequence or correlation is necessary for causation but not sufficient. The inference skips the work of ruling out coincidence, reverse causation, and a common third cause.
“Since the Enlightenment, church attendance in Europe has declined, so reason causes unbelief.” Urbanization, industrialization, and state politics are all live competing causes.
“Crime rose after the new youth ministry opened, so the ministry made things worse.” The ministry may have opened precisely because problems were already rising — reverse causation.
“I prayed and then got the job, so prayer caused the hiring.” Theists can affirm providence while still admitting this single sequence doesn’t demonstrate the causal link.
Trail recovery
Ask what else could explain the pattern. In a paper, name at least one alternative cause and say why your account handles the data better. Charitably, assume the person noticed a real pattern worth examining.
Try saying: “That’s an interesting pattern — what would we expect to see if something else were driving both?”
Keep questioning. Keep exploring.